On Wednesday, February 7th, 2024, the seminar series hosted a talk by Prof. Simon Wilson, Chair of Statistical Uncertainty and Risk at the School of Computer Science and Statistics in Trinity College Dublin, on estimating the number of species using proxy data on effort. Details for the talk are below.
Title
Estimating the number of species using proxy data on effort
Abstract
Data in a number of kinds problem are usually modelled as one of 2 types: complete sampling data, where the number of individuals sampled and their kind are observed, and temporal data that describe when new kinds were observed but lack information on numbers sampled. Very different models and estimation methods apply to these types.
Inconveniently, one of the most important applications of this problem, estimation of the number of species, falls into neither type; complete sampling information is lacking, but there is some proxy information on it, typically some measure of effort like estimates of numbers of individuals that can be sampled.
In this paper we propose a hybrid model that allows such proxy information to be incorporated. The advantage of this approach are that it produces a framework around which the uncertainties in the number of species can be modelled and quantified, something that is certainly needed for a question where estimates vary by at least an order of magnitude and estimates of uncertainty are often lacking.
Inference is implemented via ABC and applied to 2 large databases: Catalogue of Life and World Register of Marine Species. Prior sensitivity and approaches to speeding up the implementation are discussed.